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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VTN2XSR9D9",
  "slug": "will-openai-release-a-new-frontier-model-by",
  "question": "Will OpenAI release a new frontier model in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
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  "tags": [
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    "openai",
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  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether OpenAI will publicly release a frontier model by three sequential deadlines: May 31, June 30, and September 30, 2026. All three are binary outcome markets on the same underlying event, structured as cascading strike thresholds across a single timeline. A YES resolution on the May 31 contract implies YES on the later dates, creating an implicit probability ceiling across the sequence. Resolution on each contract follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with no independent authoritative publisher named beyond market-stated criteria.",
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "question": "Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?",
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