{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZW0NT5RFN3",
  "slug": "will-openai-release-a-social-network-in-2026",
  "question": "Will OpenAI release a social network by 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "openai",
    "social-network",
    "product-launch",
    "ai-tech",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether OpenAI will publicly launch a social network by December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary prices the yes/no outcome. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle to determine whether a qualifying launch occurred before the deadline. The key caveat is that \"release\" is undefined, leaving prototype versus full product launches open to dispute.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QC41848WS9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.15,
    "implied_probability": 0.15
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QC41848WS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZW0NT5RFN3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe97152561097edb4ab240c4658342d32ed8750dc18ed2eabc27ee06ce6ae5c8b",
      "question": "Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format. \n\nTools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clea",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves whether OpenAI has launched a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format. \n\nTools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.\n\nA qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nSocial networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.\n\nMessaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 61341.43541700001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E2151DFC61",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "openai",
        "product launch",
        "social network"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZW0NT5RFN3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}