{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-16GNRR3QF5",
  "slug": "will-opensea-launch-a-token-by-142",
  "question": "Will OpenSea launch a token by 2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "opensea",
    "token-launch",
    "defi",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether OpenSea will launch a native token across four sequential deadlines in 2026. Each Polymarket contract is a binary outcome at a distinct cutoff: March 31, June 30, September 30, and December 31. Later-dated contracts are structurally inclusive of earlier ones, creating an implicit term structure of token-launch probability. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which introduces a dispute window before final settlement.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-K8LV5G2KD9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BHP5M7K396",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-16GNRR3QF5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x73cde871a66a3caf95e1899a727b391e28d243696bf1c05a0aedda161a29dbb8",
      "question": "Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Opensea officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Opensea officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Opensea",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 275633.96380799933,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DC151A3B43",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nft",
        "opensea",
        "opensea token launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VKRBVJZ6X2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-16GNRR3QF5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe636566f6a640292e81dcbe2a4aa527a26629465cc93683bc2422dba76874cdc",
      "question": "Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Opensea officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Opensea officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Opensea",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.254,
      "implied_probability": 0.254,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2793.626362,
      "volume_total_usd": 177871.31889099814,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5064B8D7EF",
      "also_on": [
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          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-CR7PS0KJH4",
          "price": 0.48
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      "tags": [
        "nft",
        "opensea",
        "opensea token launch",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K8LV5G2KD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-16GNRR3QF5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaf3a1430b16829f84ebf072067e68e692b4352f8a7ce65e46634fd0545bb934a",
      "question": "Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Opensea officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T06:17:47Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Opensea officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Opensea",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1030400.688669999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-33F5D68623",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nft",
        "opensea",
        "opensea token launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D54FF7WD81",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-16GNRR3QF5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcce8b41724f1340f65ea26e0d4084e9d091a71446a456b480fd2550b0f70a3fa",
      "question": "Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Opensea officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Opensea officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opensea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Opensea",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.046,
      "implied_probability": 0.046,
      "volume_24h_usd": 257.133146,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C082DBBEDD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nft",
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        "opensea token launch",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K8LV5G2KD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T06:17:47Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-16GNRR3QF5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}