{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J040XJPCQ8",
  "slug": "will-oro-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Oro launch a token by 2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "oro",
    "blockchain",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Oro will launch a token by sequential deadline dates spanning 2026 through 2027. Each contract is a discrete binary with a later strike implying a strictly higher probability than any earlier one. The March 31, 2026 contract has already passed its deadline as of today. All five markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which may introduce dispute lag around each deadline.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5LGNFNJKS7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-145MR0D6C1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J040XJPCQ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x84cb5dcd5ec50412a9b9c102633371e19fac46ee7fc341b2588560dca694f496",
      "question": "Will Oro launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/orogoldapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/orogoldapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Oro",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15,
      "volume_total_usd": 26709.03636099998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-221131317C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "oro",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CB9R2MMZW0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J040XJPCQ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc42d2ae59827c2d522d6bf067687aa8892c05ca15e734e5cd03faa10fbb1d5eb",
      "question": "Will Oro launch a token by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/orogoldapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/orogoldapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Oro",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 20596.597475999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9354AE1782",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "oro",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5LGNFNJKS7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J040XJPCQ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb8332bd4e639714343acc69c069a779fd99a21599e51a6b2ee2eb1e40971adbb",
      "question": "Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/orogoldapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/orogoldapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Oro",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 67619.85197199995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F90F988FED",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "oro",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MP9KST5YR2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J040XJPCQ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x07fa4131c9062da54b4ab80cbeeedc504ac0ab9173d442e70c58ecda831c66f6",
      "question": "Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/orogoldapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/orogoldapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Oro",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.032,
      "implied_probability": 0.032,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5904.705082000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-38840A21B5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "oro",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NR0LCWCWG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J040XJPCQ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcafc2c4b590dfcde7a2da6721f1f201b5554f7bbc6f1e8bda0d9dd838b3d98a8",
      "question": "Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Oro (https://x.com/orogoldapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Oro, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/orogoldapp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/orogoldapp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Oro",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "implied_probability": 0.58,
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      "volume_total_usd": 17135.75899200001,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "oro",
        "token"
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    }
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-145MR0D6C1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T08:04:52Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CB9R2MMZW0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:44:15Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-J040XJPCQ8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}