{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YKCXX1PMH9",
  "slug": "will-predictfun-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "predict-fun",
    "defi-infrastructure",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Predict.fun, a crypto prediction platform, will launch a proprietary token by successive deadline dates. All eight contracts are binary Polymarket markets structured as sequential strike thresholds: March 2026 through December 2027. Each later-dated contract subsumes the earlier ones, creating an implicit term structure of token-launch probability. All markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-PMMYKNQVK0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N9DG4S0J87",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YKCXX1PMH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7c9a6f47ff08e94cdaad6c8e6d4f911f81f05e011ff6a4cc020e0af24ddd45de",
      "question": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T08:32:07Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 10408.534968,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-ACAA7D6B58",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "predict token launch",
        "predict.fun",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BSTTG0DBD2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YKCXX1PMH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa0e62cbab46117319c51b5f1f42f1475b502c47e0676b0e4b49b95970d52b8c4",
      "question": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 50,
      "volume_total_usd": 27904.428031000007,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5E2B5A81A6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "predict token launch",
        "predict.fun",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0C7Z5X3DP7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YKCXX1PMH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdb5a137827d15df2857d68b3eefc7f3e12355f0fc666fe6e1984535d62c0bd3c",
      "question": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5844.577162000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8C7E7FBE66",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "predict token launch",
        "predict.fun",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TR11Q94FZ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YKCXX1PMH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x44a785ee8973526fd587f902739da9579f29b2326a77d0f2040e480ecc6263c7",
      "question": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.733,
      "implied_probability": 0.733,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10,
      "volume_total_usd": 2001.1155860000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-38CED78440",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "predict token launch",
        "predict.fun",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PMMYKNQVK0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YKCXX1PMH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0c43ccf6055b998f7c4c2e70d27a36f38719a7beb4930f690ff76a5820caa60b",
      "question": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 87897.72577800002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A8B1F6ED25",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "predict token launch",
        "predict.fun",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HN54SF6HV8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YKCXX1PMH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x95feddfb444684affe3347fbe3c5af37092a6315ba2b389dc187ad5661527d0a",
      "question": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.26,
      "implied_probability": 0.26,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 26707.522143999995,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B4BD018049",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "predict token launch",
        "predict.fun",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GJDG5CX0D2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YKCXX1PMH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb37bf0336b895f6b67b7f68bdb3a0ebcedfb9eb76b39301c4d4f4c81958bd6c0",
      "question": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.664,
      "implied_probability": 0.664,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2409.9383359999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-59F44792EF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "predict token launch",
        "predict.fun",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TW687WKGX9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YKCXX1PMH9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1498cbef993b1ad8fb24ae3a2bf97c21b03388c2cb608690cb5032e8b057084e",
      "question": "Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://predict.fun/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": "https://predict.fun/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "predict.fun",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.886,
      "implied_probability": 0.886,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9.71,
      "volume_total_usd": 6898.73191,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-51A76149CF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "predict token launch",
        "predict.fun",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N9DG4S0J87",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:32:07Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YKCXX1PMH9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}