{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH2ZT7R9L5",
  "slug": "will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "reza-pahlavi",
    "political-movement",
    "2026",
    "regime-change"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Reza Pahlavi, the exiled heir to Iran's Pahlavi dynasty, physically enters Iran by successive calendar deadlines spanning January through December 2026. All seven contracts are structured identically on Polymarket, creating a term structure of binary outcomes across monthly thresholds. Earlier-dated contracts resolve first, with each resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The January 31 contract carries a resolve_at timestamp of March 1, 2026, flagging a potential lag between deadline and settlement confirmation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1VNG74BXX8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-30GXMNTPZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH2ZT7R9L5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc3eec0760dbccaf3c6dd29954a8711dcbf15869c4c77305d8dfc8faa9b705a6f",
      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?",
      "description": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "February 28: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-01T07:16:15Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 41,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 451401.661399,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "political figure",
        "reza pahlavi",
        "reza pahlavi iran"
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    {
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd25b2fc3a916b317d71b398c5d0f81ad33fe1da6b56d6c9f717332d31584504e",
      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?",
      "description": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T06:47:47Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?",
      "description": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-01T07:41:54Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GBTM1MXPG1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH2ZT7R9L5",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x43272c02b8407ed3f8d5b04fb4cb132d7a59c5df6ecc423afcf66f1c778d1887",
      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?",
      "description": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B464NS4DH9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JH2ZT7R9L5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2f224fca80a6a6b3a2a200406473fc8b33da6bcf5af83dc3fe9021a541c0519d",
      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?",
      "description": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    {
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      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?",
      "description": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?",
      "description": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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        "rules_raw": "If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-JH2ZT7R9L5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}