{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-44LPY1B1G2",
  "slug": "will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "politics",
    "iran",
    "leadership",
    "regime-change",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Reza Pahlavi will hold de facto executive authority over Iran by December 31, 2026. Polymarket prices a binary outcome on whether Pahlavi exercises head-of-state powers. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which evaluates de facto control, not formal title alone. The \"de facto\" standard introduces meaningful ambiguity in disputed or transitional governance scenarios.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0RRRY7FZP9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.047,
    "implied_probability": 0.047
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0RRRY7FZP9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-44LPY1B1G2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaa5cdb6830cbfa2ca711b7cf93bd42cf4f8e062d44ea188c0b8ec1fb2924c083",
      "question": "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nReza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises powers of Iran's head of state by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nReza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.\n\nIf Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.047,
      "implied_probability": 0.047,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2908.015534999984,
      "volume_total_usd": 11650823.365643948,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "iran",
        "political leadership",
        "reza pahlavi",
        "reza pahlavi leadership"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-44LPY1B1G2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}