{
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    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-00P074X336",
  "slug": "will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by",
  "question": "Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "ukraine-russia-war",
    "territorial-control",
    "donetsk-oblast",
    "2026",
    "military-conflict"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russian forces will fully control Donetsk Oblast by three sequential deadlines in 2026. The March 31 market has already reached its resolve date of April 1, 2026; the June 30 and December 31 markets remain open. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The tiered deadline structure prices the probability of full oblast capture across increasing time horizons within 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TFD6KLMVJ2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-034PL8LND4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-00P074X336",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x74a960f6e74324d124183f786467b089beebaaa34b075181c55e823b18bde048",
      "question": "Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their en",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T06:31:25Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of a municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within a municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this may still qualify.\n\nOnce Russia has captured the entirety of the above-specified municipalities simultaneously, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: \n\n1. Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\n2. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 309715.4514700002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "platform_market_id": "0x60ecb823bb667a51ccf9ffcb1cab2c48899cd16410687874887dab9df9f4e1bf",
      "question": "Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their en",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of a municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within a municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this may still qualify.\n\nOnce Russia has captured the entirety of the above-specified municipalities simultaneously, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 483.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 363546.1003729998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JCQF2SNQC1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-00P074X336",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xec4366aa6a191c8dc392e2b3bc874d5ce9a22637a60f33e72e869ce39c89ef4e",
      "question": "Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their en",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nDonetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nThe territory of a municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within a municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this may still qualify.\n\nOnce Russia has captured the entirety of the above-specified municipalities simultaneously, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.",
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TFD6KLMVJ2",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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}