{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYD8DLYRM3",
  "slug": "will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by",
  "question": "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by the end of 2025?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "military-conflict",
    "ukraine-russia",
    "territorial-control",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russian forces fully capture the city of Kupiansk by sequential deadlines ending December 31, 2025. Each binary contract is structured as a rolling deadline series, allowing traders to price capture probability across a term structure from November 2025 through June 2025. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using the Institute for the Study of War control map as the authoritative source. Full municipal shading in Russian-controlled color on that map constitutes the resolution condition.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JQ26HNS4H4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X04Q5XNG45",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYD8DLYRM3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5007b02fb8d03ee453d7698694b2e6bd1dfcedd8ab35b21684b56df02b3322ec",
      "question": "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by November 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "November 30: The Institute for the Study of War map will determine whether the referenced municipality is entirely shaded red by January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, resolving Yes or No accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-12-01T07:32:40Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46",
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          {
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 266979.203996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JQ26HNS4H4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYD8DLYRM3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x25021424b6bd56759b7ca1604157c172f76351158fcfb3ad60dc0fe7246ba233",
      "question": "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The Institute for the Study of War map will determine whether the referenced municipality is entirely shaded red by January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, resolving Yes or No accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:15:33Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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          {
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "deepstatemap.live",
            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 551269.217371,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "kupiansk",
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia kupiansk capture",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3P0PTHKZX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYD8DLYRM3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd942d271e59cfbcc7c9b4fe0a463718bd4e50478836b2f9f5b66243d77b29e02",
      "question": "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: The Institute for the Study of War map will determine whether the referenced municipality is entirely shaded red by January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, resolving Yes or No accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T06:31:31Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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          {
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        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 246932.9512199992,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia kupiansk capture",
        "ukraine"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2VBXLCFP32",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FYD8DLYRM3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4dfb2c0589fe2046eda5c5a0c23e6f0505235be74330712801ebfc41e96ce581",
      "question": "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by January 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 31: The Institute for the Study of War map will determine whether the referenced municipality is entirely shaded red by January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, resolving Yes or No accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-01T08:00:48Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nKupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as \"Moskovka\" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.\n\nOnce Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nKupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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