{
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    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M8Y3YJ2714",
  "slug": "will-russia-capture-kucheriv-yar-byptptpt-20260724165221452",
  "question": "Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "russia-ukraine-conflict",
    "territorial-control",
    "military-operations",
    "2026-resolution"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russian forces will capture the settlement of Kucheriv Yar by two sequential deadlines. The August 31, 2026 contract prices near-term capture probability; the October 31, 2026 contract prices an extended window. Both deploy Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle for resolution. The two-deadline structure lets traders express views on capture timing, not merely outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5L5FFTF2X2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.038,
    "implied_probability": 0.038
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5L5FFTF2X2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M8Y3YJ2714",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x458f299d5b2de1cc1ca1d308930097ae523244535976c338f011c3f5846bdda1",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by August 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian cont",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png\n\nKucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 45,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.038,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 11.18,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4V0GRC8950",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M8Y3YJ2714",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe19966e8ce3f92d0c61569192d538e0b8b0bf7186a186e0b9c7168adbbf000c1",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian cont",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.508104° N, 37.278884° E in Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location in Kucheriv Yar: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar1.png\n\nKucheriv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar2.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/RE7mStop1xTdzpaDA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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