{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GM6XLL63G6",
  "slug": "will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025",
  "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by...?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "russia-ukraine",
    "military-conflict",
    "territorial-control",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russian forces will capture Lyman, Ukraine, by successive monthly deadlines through 2026. Each contract is a discrete binary, priced independently, forming an implied timeline of capture probability across tenors. All ten markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using Institute for the Study of War map shading as the authoritative ground truth. A capture determination requires ISW to shade the Lyman location red on its published control maps.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X5W7KVSCQ7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TJDWT49V04",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GM6XLL63G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x976adfce69d6fcdc611255282d78e41716183b78560076fc2f68c6823d814ddc",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: The Institute for the Study of War map shading of the referenced location red indicates capture; UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves by January 1, 2026, 4:59 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T07:28:29Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
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            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 105223.26670400008,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "lyman",
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia captures lyman",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X5W7KVSCQ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GM6XLL63G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x69b009591dd768c3878e2ff9b28b8661e039409ea2f156ad70aa5224c08702e0",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The Institute for the Study of War map shading of the referenced location red indicates capture; UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves by January 1, 2026, 4:59 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:13:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "deepstatemap.live",
            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 764798.497059,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "lyman",
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia captures lyman",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XDNHSJ6N12",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GM6XLL63G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x25e4d8c492f2b24d8f720c9bd7480e541613405d6d13598c51f36f214ec5112a",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: The Institute for the Study of War map shading of the referenced location red indicates capture; UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves by January 1, 2026, 4:59 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg",
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          {
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            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW map",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 929.316358,
      "volume_total_usd": 40393.13535099999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "lyman",
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia captures lyman",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C6B8CSYXF0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GM6XLL63G6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9264181a391b7c537c37071719ad73ebc7bee47d5a70db40e5d6be88ecb61697",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "November 30: The Institute for the Study of War map shading of the referenced location red indicates capture; UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves by January 1, 2026, 4:59 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-12-01T07:32:42Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "January 31: The Institute for the Study of War map shading of the referenced location red indicates capture; UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves by January 1, 2026, 4:59 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-01T08:00:44Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026?",
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      "close_at": "2025-12-31T23:55:00Z",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x2d02521a1f5f3ae2aca49885834bdb34b279cf9551feebe4e13474a9150c4f9f",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2025-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:32:37Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The Institute for the Study of War map shading of the referenced location red indicates capture; UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves by January 1, 2026, 4:59 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-12-31T23:55:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg\n\nLyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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      "question": "Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?",
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