{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J63P6XRFL4",
  "slug": "will-russia-capture-prymorske-by",
  "question": "Will Russia capture Prymorske in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "russia-ukraine",
    "territorial-control",
    "military-conflict",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russian forces will capture Prymorske, a Ukrainian settlement, by three sequential deadlines in 2026. Each Polymarket contract is a binary outcome resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The June 30 deadline is the earliest trigger; a capture by then would likely resolve all three markets affirmatively. The staggered structure lets traders price near-term and medium-term capture probability independently.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XXR6267XG2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.19,
    "implied_probability": 0.19
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HJXZ87X9X9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J63P6XRFL4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1afa0aac4347f38ce35e621c14556c0cc858989c52d898bb6d3eb4f83ee05423",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png \n\nIntersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png \n\nPrymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png \n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png",
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_total_usd": 5003.195472,
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      "tags": [
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        "ukraine"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XXR6267XG2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J63P6XRFL4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7dec9c618309c76d9772c3205ecf688828189c00d0485222be618e0a0011f00a",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png \n\nIntersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png \n\nPrymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png \n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png",
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/)",
            "url": null,
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        "source_of_record": "ISW map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DPRLSLM971",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J63P6XRFL4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7804ef0fc4026e02ba004755e83ad2eed8e8a7af0ca6ec4206cf3361537056d5",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png \n\nIntersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png \n\nPrymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png \n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8 \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-J63P6XRFL4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}