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    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WYMVF5BQM0",
  "slug": "will-russia-capture-slovainsk-by-2027",
  "question": "Will Russia capture Sloviansk by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
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    "ukraine-russia-conflict",
    "military-territorial-control",
    "2026",
    "eastern-europe"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russian forces will capture Sloviansk, a Ukrainian city in Donetsk Oblast, by two sequential deadlines. The June 30 contract prices near-term capture probability; the December 31 contract prices the extended-horizon probability. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, consulting the Institute for the Study of War's control map as the authoritative source. Map depiction as of the resolution date is determinative; contested or partial control may create edge-case disputes.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7V9C2VBKK5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WYMVF5BQM0",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x9beef050b957fe8db5f5d31b8be5d158c80867cc8013d35edd488d6b25f69f70",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Institute for the Study of War map will be consulted on July 1, 2026 at 6:10 AM ET to determine if the referenced location is shaded red, resolving Yes or No accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg\n\nSloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "question": "Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qual",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Institute for the Study of War map will be consulted on July 1, 2026 at 6:10 AM ET to determine if the referenced location is shaded red, resolving Yes or No accordingly.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:10:55Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station+zoom.png\n\nTrain station Location in Sloviansk: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk+train+station.jpeg\n\nSloviansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/slovyansk.jpeg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FnDJ8Xur2CzKvGC76?g_st=isi\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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