{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
  "slug": "will-russia-capture-toretske-by",
  "question": "Will Russia capture Toretsk by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "ukraine-conflict",
    "military-territorial-control",
    "russia-ukraine-war",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Russian territorial capture of Toretske across six sequential deadlines spanning February 2026 through September 2026. Each contract is a binary outcome priced at a distinct cutoff date, creating an implied probability term structure for battlefield control. All six resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using the Institute for the Study of War control map at specified coordinates. The February 28 and March 31 2026 contracts are past their deadlines and reflect resolved states.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HL1N7WJBX2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.029,
    "implied_probability": 0.029,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TN44R52JM8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1ebd435e340c23cdd00c994f1c29f388b94fc723a6c088a82d4e9a83076098d7",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control mu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: The ISW control map at the specified geographic coordinates will determine whether the referenced location shows Russian control by August 1, 2026, 2:03 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T07:07:15Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png\n\nToretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png",
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          {
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            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
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            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.022,
      "implied_probability": 0.022,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 8090.429781000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia captures toretske",
        "toretske",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HL1N7WJBX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x89f4e4b93e24dfeea42d4b7bd5dc78010ed560947aed3d92ffaf23692e586f13",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: The ISW control map at the specified geographic coordinates will determine whether the referenced location shows Russian control by August 1, 2026, 2:03 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:03:59Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png\n\nToretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA",
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          {
            "name": "deepstatemap.live",
            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.029,
      "implied_probability": 0.029,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 73400.6091,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia captures toretske",
        "toretske",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WQNTT7GJ51",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4d9fb9eb85d817e7f06926d9cfdc9b300decdbe46bfa1d11aed6263d5921f48b",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian cont",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: The ISW control map at the specified geographic coordinates will determine whether the referenced location shows Russian control by August 1, 2026, 2:03 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png\n\nToretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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          },
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            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-01T23:00:40.271Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 2072.822334,
      "volume_total_usd": 24091.133999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia captures toretske",
        "toretske",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3Z5WKGH2Z3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x051524749f7dc742384f8584c8399c44410d31fb89a8605d8e9da095d291ccf9",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Toretske by February 28, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian contr",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "February 28: The ISW control map at the specified geographic coordinates will determine whether the referenced location shows Russian control by August 1, 2026, 2:03 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-01T07:24:17Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png\n\nToretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: The ISW control map at the specified geographic coordinates will determine whether the referenced location shows Russian control by August 1, 2026, 2:03 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T06:31:27Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png\n\nToretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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      "source": "platform_api",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}