{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
  "slug": "will-russia-capture-toretske-by",
  "question": "Will Russia capture Toretsk by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "ukraine-conflict",
    "military-territorial-control",
    "russia-ukraine-war",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These six Polymarket markets track Russian capture of Toretske across sequential deadline tranches through September 2026. Each binary resolves independently, creating an implied term structure of capture probability across near- and medium-term horizons. The February 28 and March 31 markets have passed their deadlines and reflect resolved states as of those dates. Resolution across all tranches follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol, with no independent adjudicating body named as authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HL1N7WJBX2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.062,
    "implied_probability": 0.062
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TN44R52JM8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1ebd435e340c23cdd00c994f1c29f388b94fc723a6c088a82d4e9a83076098d7",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control mu",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T07:07:15Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png\n\nToretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.022,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 8090.429781000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia captures toretske",
        "toretske",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HL1N7WJBX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x89f4e4b93e24dfeea42d4b7bd5dc78010ed560947aed3d92ffaf23692e586f13",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png\n\nToretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png",
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            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA",
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            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
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            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.062,
      "implied_probability": 0.062,
      "volume_24h_usd": 27.012332999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 72915.26337399999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia captures toretske",
        "toretske",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WQNTT7GJ51",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4d9fb9eb85d817e7f06926d9cfdc9b300decdbe46bfa1d11aed6263d5921f48b",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian cont",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png\n\nToretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
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        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.44,
      "implied_probability": 0.44,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15.727271,
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      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "russia",
        "russia captures toretske",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3Z5WKGH2Z3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x051524749f7dc742384f8584c8399c44410d31fb89a8605d8e9da095d291ccf9",
      "question": "Will Russia capture Toretske by February 28, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian contr",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "February 28: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-01T07:24:17Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png\n\nToretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3P51BB7JL1",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T06:31:27Z",
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}