{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-X5WM459DG3",
  "slug": "will-russia-enter-krasnopillya-by-april-30",
  "question": "Will Russia enter Krasnopillya in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "russia-ukraine",
    "military-conflict",
    "territorial-control",
    "2026",
    "ukraine"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russian forces will enter Krasnopillya, a settlement in Ukraine's Sumy region, by four successive deadlines: April 30, May 31, July 31, and September 30, 2026. Each contract is a binary outcome priced on Polymarket, with the deadline structure allowing traders to express views on both timing and probability of territorial advance. The four strikes function as a term structure, where nearer-dated contracts imply tighter probability bounds than deferred ones. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using open-source conflict-tracking evidence.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HBJJYJ94C6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.021
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xb744bc19070b0c84fde101c0b4dc81f7192a3d65723b594db1e30596608d7dc5",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ru",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T12:25:43Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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          {
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            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "question": "Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ru",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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          {
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        "score": 55,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.021,
      "implied_probability": 0.021,
      "volume_24h_usd": 54,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WZ12P2XB45",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-X5WM459DG3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x60b4ee89a443d75781b3f01b1811779fa622612a2e2eaacbedaeb66671a50ab9",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ru",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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      "question": "Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast, (50.77395633727591° N, 35.2597768488549° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ru",
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      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
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