{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7V5J68ZTL1",
  "slug": "will-russia-enter-serhiivka-by-march-31",
  "question": "Will Russia enter Serhiivka by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "ukraine-russia-conflict",
    "territorial-control",
    "military-operations",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Russian forces will enter Serhiivka by five sequential deadlines in 2026. The April 30 and May 31 markets are the nearest-term; the July 31 and December 31 contracts price longer-horizon territorial advance. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Institute for the Study of War control maps. A key caveat: ISW map updates may lag real-time ground conditions, creating timing risk around each resolution date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TC3K7KHTM9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.02,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L34RZB5T64",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7V5J68ZTL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x43cf569450f1c4259cd0426127d8356fb6296df9f09456d1d4aa3c9cd4cd76c4",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Serhiivka by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: The Institute for the Study of War map indicating control of the referenced territory by the specified date resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T10:55:53Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "deepstatemap.live",
            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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      "last_price": 0.017,
      "implied_probability": 0.017,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia military control",
        "serhiivka",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TC3K7KHTM9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7V5J68ZTL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9ec19ba3fac7c9aab96656d9c1ae7503f9f5ae2ec96c3ecd956421e620fab4c4",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: The Institute for the Study of War map indicating control of the referenced territory by the specified date resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:05:09Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "deepstatemap.live",
            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "DeepStateMap",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 106554.560587,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "russia",
        "russia military control",
        "serhiivka",
        "ukraine"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M34HZT4X31",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7V5J68ZTL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x87e88f20d213f027db39448af1f48591fe37fe7cae7fe88cd9e88f3b12256aad",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Serhiivka by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The Institute for the Study of War map indicating control of the referenced territory by the specified date resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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          {
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            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T10:00:43.405Z",
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        "serhiivka",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6RV4VPSR03",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7V5J68ZTL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x15b8b3a92fb35fb366d27f1d175063c4d32b2fe4fafbb2838530680236eefdae",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian cont",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: The Institute for the Study of War map indicating control of the referenced territory by the specified date resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T06:33:25Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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            "url": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 32960.718667000016,
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        "serhiivka",
        "ukraine"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-79M9N0WN23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7V5J68ZTL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x881e84127b24835a0da3e5819b3ef415d8738749a9257d28c854b3ab5a4d8d23",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Serhiivka by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian cont",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: The Institute for the Study of War map indicating control of the referenced territory by the specified date resolves this market via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T07:35:56Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date 2026 (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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            "name": "storymaps.arcgis.com",
            "url": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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