{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QCHQ4R3D57",
  "slug": "will-russia-enter-stavky-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Russia enter Stavky by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "russia-stavky",
    "military-incursion",
    "ukraine-conflict",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track Russian territorial entry into Stavky, a Ukrainian settlement, across two sequential deadlines. The June 30 contract resolves by July 1, 2026; the September 30 contract extends the window by one quarter. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using the Institute for the Study of War's interactive control map as the authoritative source. Traders should note ISW map updates can lag battlefield events, creating potential timing disputes at resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TXL8Z8HF05",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.013,
    "implied_probability": 0.013
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TXL8Z8HF05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QCHQ4R3D57",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xddfb08da450b2a285485c0588e782244128d7afc61296f3fdf46a7e22827d01d",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: The Institute for the Study of War's interactive map showing territorial control in the specified region by July 1, 2026, 6:37 AM ET determines if any territory is shaded under Russian control layers.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T06:37:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375",
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          {
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            "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/",
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            "name": "ISW map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "ISW Ukraine map",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ISW Ukraine map",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.013,
      "implied_probability": 0.013,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 17204.066369000015,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia enters stavky",
        "stavky"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-21C34XRXR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QCHQ4R3D57",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x09745e0a2a5fd5ce992407e070556326c83e5217f7d2dee74074344c439fb4b2",
      "question": "Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: The Institute for the Study of War's interactive map showing territorial control in the specified region by July 1, 2026, 6:37 AM ET determines if any territory is shaded under Russian control layers.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).\n\nTerritory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either \"Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine\", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. \n\nOnce a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_total_usd": 4481.572804,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TXL8Z8HF05",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-07-01T06:37:35Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-QCHQ4R3D57",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}