{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JZJP14YR11",
  "slug": "will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "military-conflict",
    "russia",
    "international-relations",
    "2026",
    "state-actors"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Russia will launch a military offensive aimed at controlling territory of a UN member state in 2026. Resolution runs to December 31, 2026, via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The authoritative threshold requires credible reporting consensus on offensive intent, not mere border incidents. No cross-platform comparison is available; only Polymarket has structured this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RFY4Y5Y7N9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.07,
    "implied_probability": 0.07,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RFY4Y5Y7N9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JZJP14YR11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8011cff605bac25673a202332b678e823cd7d82abad9e9770db01ea625808229",
      "question": "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "A consensus of credible reporting of Russian military offensives intended to establish control over UN member state territory (excluding Ukraine) by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 132.19,
      "volume_total_usd": 452237.64057299995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "russia",
        "russia military invasion"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JZJP14YR11",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}