{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
  "slug": "will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by",
  "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "supreme-court",
    "us-judicial",
    "retirement",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito will announce retirement by discrete deadlines spanning 2026. Each contract is a binary strike on a different date threshold: February 28, March 31, July 15, September 30, and December 31, 2026, plus June 30, 2027. Earlier strikes imply later ones, creating an embedded probability term structure across the sequence. All six markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly announced retirement news.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-R37KRW5V23",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MCQSTF7562",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbc0079f0872035a9eccf8920c3ceb807750685c25a5f5dcd8a8a235a34cd7bb0",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 381.92,
      "volume_total_usd": 1084063.2603499999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alito",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R37KRW5V23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeee4eed57180948422c259a91e74d8a6742c65878181ca9ca122975ed11d2b48",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 15: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T06:04:56Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1559549.9405560012,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alito",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BGWW462KV3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x559b8224c2ae858342c0617ba278b46242e51071950f9a9d04bc3147dc374440",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-06-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 21.525,
      "volume_total_usd": 48260.269846999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alito",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9H0VS41NZ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5aeab09fc3a662300d77de0b3803f84eea0ec5417355aa5e0a0da05b5f954540",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by February 28, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "February 28: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-01T11:47:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 15080.984715,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alito",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5LX6288YX2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7409587af591e57f26cc32dd19c9673e6a01743697cc3cca4d866e0570a5ad89",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T08:43:11Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 27033.503115,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alito",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WNP1DLS7M9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa222013f2baf3e9eb0613b7dc45d2fd8a3e63177c21bd282d9bb5133d6a44986",
      "question": "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.\n\nAny qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 80,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 25.9,
      "volume_total_usd": 857419.1500730005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "alito",
        "samuel alito retirement",
        "supreme court",
        "us politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R37KRW5V23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-16T06:04:56Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5LX6288YX2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:43:11Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9H0VS41NZ9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-03-01T11:47:01Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-XDBQBGP715",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}