{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3030994QH5",
  "slug": "will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin",
    "satoshi-nakamoto",
    "on-chain-activity",
    "2027",
    "dormant-wallet"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any Bitcoin moves from wallets attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto during calendar year 2026. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing Arkham's Intel Explorer entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto. Arkham Intelligence is the authoritative on-chain data source determining whether any outflow or swap transactions occurred.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-82Z2P4M7Y2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.055,
    "implied_probability": 0.055
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-82Z2P4M7Y2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3030994QH5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c",
      "question": "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto\n\nIf Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.\n\n\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Arkham's Intel Explorer entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto determines whether any outflow or swaps transactions occurred between January 9, 2026 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto\n\nIf Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.\n\n\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "intel.arkm.com",
            "url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.055,
      "implied_probability": 0.055,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7533.027196999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 4475513.014514996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-EF37B2824F",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-SSKHDWNR79",
          "price": 0.07
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "movement",
        "satoshi",
        "satoshi nakamoto bitcoin",
        "wallet"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3030994QH5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}