{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
  "slug": "will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will any ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "strait-of-hormuz",
    "shipping-logistics",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These four Polymarket markets track whether daily Strait of Hormuz transits hit discrete thresholds by June 30, 2026. The thresholds are 20, 40, 60, and 80 ships, forming a layered strike structure across a single chokepoint metric. Each market resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using IMF Portwatch daily transit call data as the authoritative source. Lower strikes embed higher probability; the 80-ship threshold prices a tail disruption scenario.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X668JRWSH3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.003,
    "implied_probability": 0.003
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VPHTF1QH64",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8f21e67bc25fcaa809f3f739e7bfc9d4e1a42e915709d32632d5438c068e1e8e",
      "question": "Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "80+: IMF Portwatch daily transit call data for the Strait of Hormuz resolves this market if the listed threshold is met on any date by June 30, 2026, with finalized data required before consideration.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20120.626348,
      "volume_total_usd": 53284.464499,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 80,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "hormuz",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz daily"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G1XGNRJ118",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2358809f9f612f8fb4f224b342ba2841ca644a6e3c46adb4c3bcee910cc31632",
      "question": "Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "20+: IMF Portwatch daily transit call data for the Strait of Hormuz resolves this market if the listed threshold is met on any date by June 30, 2026, with finalized data required before consideration.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "portwatch.imf.org",
            "url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 19941.525266999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 68870.21924500001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "hormuz",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz daily"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2PWR2MSFF4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb2a1c0c2a5ddd15fb8ba2dea1a808ef32c61108bb1a5911281006e8076b6714b",
      "question": "Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "40+: IMF Portwatch daily transit call data for the Strait of Hormuz resolves this market if the listed threshold is met on any date by June 30, 2026, with finalized data required before consideration.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
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          {
            "name": "IMF Portwatch",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13561.715268000005,
      "volume_total_usd": 56103.098105,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 40,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "hormuz",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz daily"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X668JRWSH3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc38b96e6fb12fc68d003ff326f2a11eb3c8f04c2fce7fcfc9d62f5e18131817c",
      "question": "Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "60+: IMF Portwatch daily transit call data for the Strait of Hormuz resolves this market if the listed threshold is met on any date by June 30, 2026, with finalized data required before consideration.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.003,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 18035.20589,
      "volume_total_usd": 72904.11612199999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 60,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "hormuz",
        "shipping",
        "strait hormuz daily"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G1XGNRJ118",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2PWR2MSFF4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}