{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CMGQS8KSK6",
  "slug": "will-spacex-acquire-cursor",
  "question": "Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "ai",
    "m-and-a",
    "spacex",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether SpaceX will complete an acquisition of Cursor, the AI code editor. Both markets are on Polymarket and differ by deadline: one resolves September 30, 2026, the other December 31, 2026. The structural difference is tenor, not outcome framing; the later contract prices incremental probability over the additional quarter. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LQGSW813W4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LQGSW813W4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CMGQS8KSK6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc2dd20bc42378191ba1e6068f2afa8b2a6c13881a42ee03e211441f0a2f3aeac",
      "question": "Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Cursor will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMergers or acquisitions involving Cursor or its parent company (if applicable), and SpaceX or its parent company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., will qualify.\n\nAn announcement by Cursor or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Cursor will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMergers or acquisitions involving Cursor or its parent company (if applicable), and SpaceX or its parent company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., will qualify.\n\nAn announcement by Cursor or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cursor and SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Cursor and SpaceX",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1633.49466,
      "volume_total_usd": 75343.19043100002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-20E7AB31FE",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-66VVPJ0QS7",
          "price": 0.89
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "acquisition",
        "cursor",
        "m&a",
        "spacex",
        "spacex acquisition cursor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HMY1F8X2G9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CMGQS8KSK6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x13724d46dee0fc8265728974072c068b83923129965c4c8f54c9b0e03b88d271",
      "question": "Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Cursor will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMergers or acquisitions involving Cursor or its parent company (if applicable), and SpaceX or its parent company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., will qualify.\n\nAn announcement by Cursor or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Cursor will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMergers or acquisitions involving Cursor or its parent company (if applicable), and SpaceX or its parent company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., will qualify.\n\nAn announcement by Cursor or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nAnnouncements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cursor and SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Cursor and SpaceX",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 701.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 712.2,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4EF5E88AE9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "acquisition",
        "cursor",
        "m&a",
        "spacex",
        "spacex acquisition cursor"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LQGSW813W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HMY1F8X2G9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-CMGQS8KSK6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}