{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HW8NPQX51",
  "slug": "will-spacex-or-openai-first-ipo-before-2028",
  "question": "Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "ipo-race",
    "corporate-milestone",
    "spacex-vs-openai",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks which of SpaceX or OpenAI completes an initial public offering first, with resolution by December 31, 2027. Only one Polymarket contract exists, pricing a binary outcome rather than valuing either company or timing the offering date precisely. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing official company announcements and credible news sources. Neither company has confirmed a public listing timeline as of the market close date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3X982CQVB9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3X982CQVB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HW8NPQX51",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xafacd019af8894c0a0dd2581bd6b4b2572ece03bb8a98fdde905e68825b4d07f",
      "question": "Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"SpaceX\" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"OpenAI\" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. \n\nThis market will resolve 50-50 if:\n- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offeri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official company announcements and credible news sources confirming which company completes an IPO first by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"SpaceX\" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"OpenAI\" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. \n\nThis market will resolve 50-50 if:\n- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;\n- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or\n- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official company announcements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible news sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1765.618,
      "volume_total_usd": 91754.84067400006,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-88A02AA6DB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "corporate",
        "ipo",
        "openai",
        "spacex",
        "spacex vs openai",
        "timing"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3X982CQVB9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T18:01:49Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5HW8NPQX51",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}