{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BB1KQGZSK5",
  "slug": "will-spain-accuse-morocco-of-facilitating-the-ceuta-migrant-influx-by-august-31-20260731174220331",
  "question": "Will Spain accuse Morocco of facilitating a migrant wave into Ceuta by August 31?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "international-affairs",
    "spain-morocco",
    "migration",
    "ceuta",
    "diplomatic-accusations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Spain's central government will formally accuse Morocco of facilitating a migrant surge into Ceuta by August 31, 2026. Resolution requires an on-the-record public statement from an authorized Spanish government representative explicitly naming Moroccan facilitation. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement. The statement threshold is narrow; diplomatic ambiguity may fall short of explicit accusation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-G2CLCWHC76",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.035,
    "implied_probability": 0.035
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G2CLCWHC76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BB1KQGZSK5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf004dab16f9317874b6f372cfdb4165399a76bac4ab86a929deeb51965ef9858",
      "question": "Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Spanish government explicitly claims that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx of migrants that occurred in the Spanish territory of Ceuta on July 30, 2026, by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSuch a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the Spanish Central government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx. A statement from a la",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "An authorized Spanish Central government representative's official on-the-record public statement explicitly claiming Morocco deliberately caused or facilitated the July 30, 2026 Ceuta migrant influx, issued by August 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Spanish government explicitly claims that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx of migrants that occurred in the Spanish territory of Ceuta on July 30, 2026, by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nSuch a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the Spanish Central government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. \n\nAmbiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to Morocco (e.g., \"this would not have happened if Morocco spent more on border security\") will not qualify. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Spanish government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the Spanish government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.035,
      "implied_probability": 0.035,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10474.043232999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 60105.30891799996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ceuta",
        "diplomacy",
        "migration",
        "morocco",
        "spain",
        "spain morocco ceuta"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BB1KQGZSK5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}