{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DM9J4V0KZ3",
  "slug": "will-stripe-acquire-any-part-of-paypal-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Stripe acquire any part of PayPal by 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "business",
    "tech",
    "mergers-acquisitions",
    "stripe-paypal",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Stripe will acquire any portion of PayPal before December 31, 2026. Resolution requires an official public announcement by Stripe or PayPal confirming an acquisition, merger, or material business unit transfer. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement; absent a formal announcement, the market resolves No. No comparable Kalshi market exists for cross-platform structural contrast.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C98DHDR235",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.52,
    "implied_probability": 0.52
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C98DHDR235",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DM9J4V0KZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x57eb29c8fc0e9bbb8b988d80a38276492e2ae412bca9a62af7da55fc59d993e0",
      "question": "Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that any part of PayPal will be, has been, or is being acquired by Stripe, or that PayPal is being merged with Stripe, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAcquiring a part of PayPal refers to any material acquisition of a subset of PayPal by Stripe, including but not limited to a PayPal subsidiary, business unit, or equity interest. A total acquisition of PayPal by Stripe will count. Business partnerships between PayPal and Stripe will not count.\n\nAn announcement of a qualifying acquisi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official public announcement by Stripe or PayPal of an acquisition, merger, or material business unit transfer between the two companies by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that any part of PayPal will be, has been, or is being acquired by Stripe, or that PayPal is being merged with Stripe, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAcquiring a part of PayPal refers to any material acquisition of a subset of PayPal by Stripe, including but not limited to a PayPal subsidiary, business unit, or equity interest. A total acquisition of PayPal by Stripe will count. Business partnerships between PayPal and Stripe will not count.\n\nAn announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by PayPal or PayPal and Stripe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from PayPal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from PayPal and Stripe",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.52,
      "implied_probability": 0.52,
      "volume_24h_usd": 454.75,
      "volume_total_usd": 58894.36027400002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E70BB73815",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fintech",
        "m&a",
        "paypal",
        "stripe",
        "stripe acquires paypal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DM9J4V0KZ3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}