{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XT08WPMCR2",
  "slug": "will-stripe-acquire-paypal-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Stripe acquire PayPal by 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "business",
    "tech",
    "economy",
    "m-and-a",
    "fintech"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Stripe will complete an acquisition of PayPal by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on official announcements from Stripe, PayPal, or financial regulators confirming a completed transaction. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement. No cross-platform comparison is available; only one market exists under this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-54X8T9JD18",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.301,
    "implied_probability": 0.301
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-54X8T9JD18",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XT08WPMCR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x74681cc13dc54fa347507d7ab57b66ea8c0e8c4ff9fb5a589583239c774f65aa",
      "question": "Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A \"controlling interest\" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Tra",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements by Stripe, PayPal, or financial regulators confirming acquisition or merger of PayPal by Stripe through December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A \"controlling interest\" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count.\n\nAn announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Paypal and Stripe",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.301,
      "implied_probability": 0.301,
      "volume_24h_usd": 33.22259,
      "volume_total_usd": 64651.61477199997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3AD718FB98",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-G3V9ZZDVD2",
          "price": 0.06
        },
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-62PMLGTK02",
          "price": 0.14
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "fintech",
        "m&a",
        "paypal",
        "stripe",
        "stripe paypal acquisition"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-XT08WPMCR2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}