{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HQQ1TFQT27",
  "slug": "will-surf-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Surf launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "surf-protocol",
    "2026",
    "defi-governance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Surf, a crypto protocol, will launch a native token by seven successive deadlines spanning June 2026 through December 2027. All seven markets are structured identically as binary outcomes on Polymarket, forming a term-structure of implied token-launch probability across quarters. A YES resolution on any earlier tranche logically implies YES on all later ones, creating arbitrage constraints across strikes. All markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-15NYG7SRX1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.08
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HQQ1TFQT27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd6d617a5654e94d22121ba929c867136bd5bbbff69ea66ecd11bc39782607c0f",
      "question": "Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 547.497089,
      "volume_total_usd": 5857.234844000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2A20400E5C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "surf",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q3BWTCF3V0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HQQ1TFQT27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xee93fc0a7d54e1e26a5b8c128d8ffeda9e1b8e37de4be74d73d249599aecaf4e",
      "question": "Will Surf launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI)",
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      "implied_probability": null,
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      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-367037461A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "surf",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-15NYG7SRX1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HQQ1TFQT27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9984a5a6f107d6ac66f29b3f763b77e22406d897c79eeadf959636d407057226",
      "question": "Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 363.481024,
      "volume_total_usd": 8765.591246000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-337E7DCE2D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "surf",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M8B2FS7BS7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HQQ1TFQT27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc6e9f9852dec50e6d7c02b54296556555aceff6028a474e813caf87cc994df91",
      "question": "Will Surf launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8CD1BCEC00",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "surf",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D6DQDXBPG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HQQ1TFQT27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x46a9a28703e0df3336e1ad822c0e7f335c2034cdd3554f7accef3213ecdbbff2",
      "question": "Will Surf launch a token by March 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-CEE950D4CB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "surf",
        "token launch"
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YN6QG7QR92",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HQQ1TFQT27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xabdb9cc33cc2b0c80e56516558994465890152694eb57f4c83f8113f5c5db757",
      "question": "Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI)",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.49,
      "implied_probability": 0.49,
      "volume_24h_usd": 155.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 2807.8900000000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-EEBA6FF104",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "surf",
        "token launch"
      ],
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5LR7K865Q1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HQQ1TFQT27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x33c4dc89b3b32008bb47c5f1e2142218d16332b64396d3412db41d6165c8dc0a",
      "question": "Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Surf officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Surf will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/SurfAI",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B33852EFFD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "surf",
        "token launch"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5LR7K865Q1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
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