{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KX8W1DR75",
  "slug": "will-tesla-open-orders-for-the-robovan-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "business",
    "tech",
    "tesla",
    "robovan",
    "product-launch"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Tesla opens customer orders for its Robovan autonomous electric van before January 1, 2027. A single Polymarket binary resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Resolution requires a public Tesla announcement of preorders or full customer orders for a van-like autonomous EV. No corroborating platform prices a continuous delivery timeline or rate-level equivalent.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-RH8ZN4WZR0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.07,
    "implied_probability": 0.07
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RH8ZN4WZR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2KX8W1DR75",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x78f9e1cb1f55ca7b961ce1303d55f5b68bd7821b2cce33fe64229ffde7dc4396",
      "question": "Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.\n\nFree signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.\n\nThe qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of ot",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Tesla's public announcement of preorders or full customer orders for a van-like autonomous electric vehicle by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.\n\nFree signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.\n\nThe qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.\n\nAnnouncements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 31890.899716999993,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AE74610B66",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ev",
        "orders",
        "robovan",
        "tesla",
        "tesla robovan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2KX8W1DR75",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}