{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B2JKPKZZC4",
  "slug": "will-the-rsf-capture-khartoum-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "sudan-conflict",
    "military-control",
    "2026",
    "rsf-saf-war",
    "territorial-capture"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Rapid Support Forces establish military control over Khartoum International Airport by June 30, 2026. A single Polymarket binary resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using airport control as the operative threshold. The resolution criterion is narrowly defined: city-wide presence does not satisfy the trigger without verified airport seizure.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FLVLN447R3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FLVLN447R3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B2JKPKZZC4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5ae2789de1987f9725e8a98b0a590cb4e9bf778b5444c9ae7205c2f5a2a4de44",
      "question": "Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the \"Khartoum International Airport\" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date. \n\nIf the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated set",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether RSF forces establish military control over Khartoum International Airport by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the \"Khartoum International Airport\" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date. \n\nIf the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce the RSF captures the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that the RSF has captured the specified point.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "maps.app.goo.gl",
            "url": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 22130.990553,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "khartoum",
        "military",
        "rsf",
        "rsf capture khartoum",
        "sudan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FLVLN447R3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-B2JKPKZZC4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}