{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BSCL3ZK4F0",
  "slug": "will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "pop-culture",
    "politics",
    "us-government",
    "extraterrestrial-life",
    "disclosure",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the US government will officially confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life by various 2026 deadlines. All six markets are on Polymarket and form a term structure of binary outcomes, from March 31 through December 31, 2026. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The definitional threshold for \"confirmation\" is unspecified, creating material resolution ambiguity.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-538V8LCMB8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.06,
    "implied_probability": 0.06
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-538V8LCMB8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BSCL3ZK4F0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x747dc809fb79e1b05be09c42d6179459a58de2ef3e40f02484a4e1260f741f75",
      "question": "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the government of the United States",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8309.553672,
      "volume_total_usd": 36170479.74527282,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "aliens",
        "disclosure",
        "extraterrestrial",
        "us alien existence",
        "us government"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-46VFD76P27",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BSCL3ZK4F0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1f4b7a59e09d34209391c549db18b2c5c7be842e70a5c5fb30e2cdbb9d68c929",
      "question": "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T07:28:45Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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        "score": 32,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T06:55:52Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "score": 32,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "extraterrestrial",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-775Q2R83G1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BSCL3ZK4F0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa7962b12241616d83dcb8c70fc33aa0f48b1ec46a3ad6a23db21d3885dedc4cb",
      "question": "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 151696.35294100002,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "aliens",
        "disclosure",
        "extraterrestrial",
        "us alien existence",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WVFSHMW9B0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BSCL3ZK4F0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xace3c72c24fccb6731433483ece41c780432d84850edccd5a6bf3147ccea62a9",
      "question": "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3C9PK61B31",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BSCL3ZK4F0",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xcddc048c672ee233890b99b18885dbd510e3db3d67c53afb408ddc93f9aadff4",
      "question": "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T08:12:33Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-775Q2R83G1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-01T08:12:33Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-312NCRWKJ0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T06:55:52Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-46VFD76P27",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T07:28:45Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-BSCL3ZK4F0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}