{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZTMV2RDX49",
  "slug": "will-the-us-invade-colombia-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the U.S. invade Colombia by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "military-intervention",
    "2026",
    "latin-america",
    "trump-administration"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the United States commences a military offensive to establish control over Colombian territory in 2026. Resolution runs to December 31, 2026, via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The bar is a military offensive establishing territorial control, not diplomatic pressure or sanctions. A consensus of credible reporting determines the outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DF694L5YK3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.044,
    "implied_probability": 0.044
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DF694L5YK3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZTMV2RDX49",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x12d1f08c93c4272c0447b5aebfabc3b4901588615128d6d91d0e04a1e7031d3a",
      "question": "Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "A consensus of credible reporting on whether the United States commences a military offensive to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 27,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.044,
      "implied_probability": 0.044,
      "volume_24h_usd": 86.81511900000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 146296.26817000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "colombia",
        "geopolitics",
        "invasion colombia",
        "military",
        "usa"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZTMV2RDX49",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}