{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZNL8RFZSL4",
  "slug": "will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "military-action",
    "cuba",
    "2026",
    "conflict"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the United States launches a military offensive against Cuba in 2026. Resolution requires a credible-source consensus that a ground or naval invasion intended to establish U.S. control has commenced. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement, with the resolution window closing December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XLR2ZZZ3N4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.13,
    "implied_probability": 0.13
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XLR2ZZZ3N4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZNL8RFZSL4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x80ebf0a88a44bf737d4047b3accd7108285c69b84257e5c684bdc4c715c81139",
      "question": "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "A consensus of credible sources determines whether the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 499.79691799999995,
      "volume_total_usd": 3183117.3362190183,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cuba",
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "military invasion cuba",
        "united states"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZNL8RFZSL4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}