{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TJWVR9PXN5",
  "slug": "will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the U.S. invade Greenland by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "greenland",
    "military-intervention",
    "2026",
    "trump-administration"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the binary probability of a U.S. military offensive to establish control over Greenland before December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket contract covers the event; no cross-platform structural contrast is available. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle applied against a consensus of credible reporting. The market remains open through year-end 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LV1T3Z3ZT1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.039,
    "implied_probability": 0.039
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LV1T3Z3ZT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TJWVR9PXN5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe723e5e63c14e387c03cb37b11d79fa88f46a302503175b56cd9f68ecbc00a20",
      "question": "Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Consensus of credible reporting determines whether the United States commences a military offensive to establish control over Greenland territory by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.21,
      "volume_total_usd": 1406538.4379391,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "greenland",
        "invasion greenland",
        "military",
        "united states"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-TJWVR9PXN5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}