{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "military-intervention",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "iran",
    "2026",
    "conflict-escalation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the United States will commence a military invasion of Iran before January 1, 2027. A single Polymarket binary prices the yes/no outcome; no continuous or tiered rate-level structure exists across platforms. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing a consensus of credible news sources. The authoritative source requires evidence of an offensive intended to establish military control, not merely strikes or airspace incursions.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-L56NX4XHQ6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.28,
    "implied_probability": 0.28
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L56NX4XHQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846",
      "question": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "A consensus of credible news sources reporting whether the United States commenced a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 13,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.28,
      "implied_probability": 0.28,
      "volume_24h_usd": 223675.80373899985,
      "volume_total_usd": 46181704.55677918,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "military",
        "military invasion iran",
        "u.s."
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}