{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8H87VH2T06",
  "slug": "will-the-us-invade-mexico-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-mexico-relations",
    "military-conflict",
    "2026",
    "trump-era-policy",
    "border-crisis"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the binary probability of a U.S. military offensive against Mexico occurring before December 31, 2026. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing credible news reporting on whether the U.S. commences operations intended to establish territorial control. No cross-platform comparison is available; only one market exists. The resolution threshold requires evidence of an active military offensive, not diplomatic pressure or border enforcement actions.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V5VNBY0Y94",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.019,
    "implied_probability": 0.019
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V5VNBY0Y94",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8H87VH2T06",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1015d806e33eebde7edb0762f1197051575f6286b5f06261d8e4ff4d34c90697",
      "question": "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Credible news reporting on whether the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.019,
      "implied_probability": 0.019,
      "volume_24h_usd": 111.329881,
      "volume_total_usd": 247862.7657039997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "geopolitics",
        "mexico",
        "military",
        "military invasion mexico",
        "u.s."
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-8H87VH2T06",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}