{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-682DDGTXH2",
  "slug": "will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by",
  "question": "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "iran-conflict",
    "military-escalation",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Congress will enact and the President will sign a formal declaration of war against Iran. Three sequential deadline tranches span March 31, April 30, and December 31, 2026, creating a term-structure of war-declaration probability. Earlier tranches resolved at their respective dates; the December 31, 2026 contract remains the terminal expiry. Resolution across all three relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing Federal Register publication of the enacted declaration.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8518F0D962",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WK3WLKVJ01",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-682DDGTXH2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3285179b99df57b0390e480f8e69d340e5fa38496b263225df90ef389e2958f4",
      "question": "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nTo qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.\n\nThe resolution source wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: A formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law resolves based on Federal Register publication or Congressional Records by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nTo qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.\n\nThe resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a clear consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4308.638325,
      "volume_total_usd": 696553.4164049994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "us",
        "us iran war",
        "war"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8518F0D962",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-682DDGTXH2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5d0010816af97d97145a0b2f90b10687e0280ee4d90a5e6615e606bab7b45465",
      "question": "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nTo qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.\n\nThe resolution source wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: A formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law resolves based on Federal Register publication or Congressional Records by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T08:19:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nTo qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.\n\nThe resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "a clear consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4551157.607818982,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "us",
        "us iran war",
        "war"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3XY5K0R6N1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-682DDGTXH2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe00f84278d7ec49668b4f9f6c6d0a437663cdcf0e330fdb3789c649f8a29fdc8",
      "question": "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nTo qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.\n\nThe resolution source wi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "April 30: A formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law resolves based on Federal Register publication or Congressional Records by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T07:29:46Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nTo qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.\n\nThe resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "a clear consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2421476.6300770054,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "iran",
        "us",
        "us iran war",
        "war"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3XY5K0R6N1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-01T07:29:46Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8518F0D962",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:19:01Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-682DDGTXH2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}