{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2QZ16ZY965",
  "slug": "will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "us-iran-relations",
    "embassy-diplomacy",
    "geopolitics",
    "2026",
    "binary-outcome"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the United States will reopen a diplomatic mission in Iran before December 31, 2026. The U.S. State Department's official announcement serves as the authoritative resolution source. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. No formal diplomatic relations between the two countries have existed since 1980.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4ZZ9ZZG928",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4ZZ9ZZG928",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-2QZ16ZY965",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x91467d5c49b5e06a68d101c3ea2e227ffd76215060d93381aca203ee26cf2d06",
      "question": "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAny opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.\n\nAnnouncements that do not clearly",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. State Department's official announcement or confirmation of a U.S. embassy or consulate reopening or opening in Iran by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAny opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.\n\nAnnouncements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official statements from the Governments of the U.S.",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 155083.27469499994,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "embassy",
        "iran",
        "us",
        "us iran diplomatic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-2QZ16ZY965",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}