{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RZLRZJ80V4",
  "slug": "will-theo-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Theo launch a token by 2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "theo",
    "2027",
    "launch-timing",
    "blockchain"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Theo, a crypto trading platform, will launch a native token by successive deadline dates. The five Polymarket contracts are structured as cascading binary options across 2025 and 2026 cutoffs. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly verifiable token launch evidence. Earlier deadlines have passed, making the September 30 and December 31 2026 contracts the live pricing instruments.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-00JGPXB3K9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5Q1XQ5QFT3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RZLRZJ80V4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x71fa069210c5f051d0c3acf58356c3df2b14d631ae44f58961720644fed75568",
      "question": "Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Theo",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 23041.66151499998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-DC19EB3F73",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "theo",
        "theo token launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-00JGPXB3K9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RZLRZJ80V4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x54e36984fd85f7720dd9fbb9c3b6043d4f4ad405b6c1a6a2b905c0eec33b9110",
      "question": "Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T09:38:47Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Theo",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 84899.87038500002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CB9B769386",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "theo",
        "theo token launch",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PV6L5XZC05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RZLRZJ80V4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd2fe602e5b3143ed58ab60c7e93917be814cc6cd44884963092b3ce5ca1834b9",
      "question": "Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Theo",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 77724.88724799998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AAD31E56BC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "theo",
        "theo token launch",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0C1WBPB493",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RZLRZJ80V4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7bdc4032e5559c59ab9d763a8617c89098f819933e91bb63b02a3f69afb49076",
      "question": "Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:17:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Theo",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 48087.255617,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E40776EBBA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "theo",
        "theo token launch",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6HMF1MJLP8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RZLRZJ80V4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcb49bb8165952626565987c169909613ca6dbda4658119f64713892c3aa13512",
      "question": "Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Theo_Network",
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      "tags": [
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-00JGPXB3K9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T09:38:47Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0C1WBPB493",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T09:17:35Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-RZLRZJ80V4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}