{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DRN8JHZ7H6",
  "slug": "will-tim-walz-resign-by",
  "question": "Will Tim Walz resign by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "resignations",
    "2026",
    "tim-walz",
    "minnesota-governor"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Tim Walz resigns from public office across three sequential deadlines: January 31, June 30, and December 31, 2026. Each contract is a binary outcome; later-dated markets nest the earlier ones, making them structurally dependent. A \"Yes\" on the January contract implies \"Yes\" on all subsequent ones, creating an implied probability ladder. Resolution for all three uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MBKMTZLRR4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MBKMTZLRR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DRN8JHZ7H6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa19724e09c3641fcc504a0b290dfdb8882747d88fc459d1af8d4e35041a8e366",
      "question": "Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "January 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-02-01T11:11:48Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2213253.567355,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "politics",
        "resignation",
        "tim walz",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-48ZN8SJFH8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DRN8JHZ7H6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0629c2518036e5d7705718d0e828e49d79ac40a919ec90a134f75c8cda35e89c",
      "question": "Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 28.27,
      "volume_total_usd": 279973.8199729994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "resignation",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Q7FFPXTQ89",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DRN8JHZ7H6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x46a62442a96f6b6aec25b369d6dee763aaa5c47dc7d3750ad1ed0a6039ba63bb",
      "question": "Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Before 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22.68,
      "volume_total_usd": 56822.34543699994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "politics",
        "resignation",
        "tim walz",
        "us-politics"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-48ZN8SJFH8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MBKMTZLRR4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-02-01T11:11:48Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DRN8JHZ7H6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}