{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NMB410VRT8",
  "slug": "will-tread-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Tread launch a token by 2028?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "tread",
    "2028",
    "project-milestone"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Tread will launch a publicly transferable token by five sequential deadlines through December 31, 2027. The markets are structured as cascading binary options: earlier deadlines resolve first, with later ones remaining live if prior ones resolve NO. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring confirmation from Tread's official website and credible reporting. Resolution hinges on active public transferability, not mere announcement or internal issuance.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6CB3X9D6V1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.783,
    "implied_probability": 0.783
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6CB3X9D6V1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NMB410VRT8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x707d926e39e7a4722daed31be3a20e0e98be9700f0b7da6a99262ee295d1c022",
      "question": "Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: The listed company's official website and credible reporting confirm active public transferability and tradeability of a governance token by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tread.fi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "tread.fi",
            "url": "https://www.tread.fi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.783,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 50700.23476,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-81D93D7B57",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "token",
        "tread"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2B4FG0YHS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NMB410VRT8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x099886d5731dd1cd49b8f634011cdea4c06f95e6dcab9dd669374dc87f61b542",
      "question": "Will Tread launch a token by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: The listed company's official website and credible reporting confirm active public transferability and tradeability of a governance token by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T08:17:59Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tread.fi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "tread.fi",
            "url": "https://www.tread.fi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 11989.343921000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A9B9753B5D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "token",
        "tread"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H45HSSNT02",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NMB410VRT8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc0fc13543bdae33fafe758bfdcf4d2114f4d8fa13e3ae841117d0c9ca421ae76",
      "question": "Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: The listed company's official website and credible reporting confirm active public transferability and tradeability of a governance token by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T10:52:11Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tread.fi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "tread.fi",
            "url": "https://www.tread.fi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 24683.27106399982,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D6F2A6A546",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "token",
        "tread"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-75HR38ZNK8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NMB410VRT8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0e25020cc4e4cabd549d7bed48b794cecf1138c33185df8f529826f9b42fec29",
      "question": "Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: The listed company's official website and credible reporting confirm active public transferability and tradeability of a governance token by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tread.fi/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "tread.fi",
            "url": "https://www.tread.fi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 40724.911487,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B6F35143BC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "token",
        "tread"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NBFGG8H723",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NMB410VRT8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1e4791012e91ecf89a67dacb32d9e9b634c1ac1487ed05ea0fba302c9b229c9a",
      "question": "Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: The listed company's official website and credible reporting confirm active public transferability and tradeability of a governance token by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.tread.fi/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://www.tread.fi/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 26487.545519000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F7ACEDE49E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "token",
        "tread"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H45HSSNT02",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T10:52:11Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2B4FG0YHS1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:17:59Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NMB410VRT8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}