{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y9JVCN3DW3",
  "slug": "will-trump-flip-the-bird-again-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Trump make a obscene gesture with his middle finger in public in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "gesture-behavior",
    "2026",
    "us-politics",
    "public-conduct"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether photographic or video evidence will emerge of Donald Trump raising his middle finger before December 31, 2026. Resolution requires verified media published by that deadline, per Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. A single platform prices this as a binary outcome. Ambiguous or satirical imagery may complicate resolution determinations.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0HNNVF8N02",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.14,
    "implied_probability": 0.14
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0HNNVF8N02",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y9JVCN3DW3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2dad4655ee64f1cc5546e5807055eea9d5d355a914e88386ad92b2b04a1a28e3",
      "question": "Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?",
      "description": "Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Photo or video evidence published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET showing Donald Trump raising his middle finger in the gesture commonly referred to as \"flipping the bird.\"",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively.  Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count.\n\nPhoto or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count.\n\nAI-generated images or video will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "uncommitted_illustrative"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 57482.42330199998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "behavior",
        "gesture",
        "trump"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Y9JVCN3DW3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}