{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y9JVCN3DW3",
  "slug": "will-trump-flip-the-bird-again-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "gesture-behavior",
    "2026",
    "us-politics",
    "public-conduct"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Donald Trump will make a middle finger gesture in 2026, resolvable through photo or video evidence. A single Polymarket binary covers the outcome. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, requiring verified visual documentation of the gesture. No corroborating platform prices this event, limiting cross-market calibration.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0HNNVF8N02",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.13,
    "implied_probability": 0.13,
    "as_of": "2026-08-30T15:00:40.302Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0HNNVF8N02",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y9JVCN3DW3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2dad4655ee64f1cc5546e5807055eea9d5d355a914e88386ad92b2b04a1a28e3",
      "question": "Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?",
      "description": "Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on photo or video evidence of Donald Trump giving the middle finger gesture to another person by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively.  Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count.\n\nPhoto or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count.\n\nAI-generated images or video will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "cnn.com",
            "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "c-span.org",
            "url": "https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "c-span.org",
            "url": "https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "span.org",
            "url": "span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-30T15:00:40.302Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 58013.813302,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "gesture",
        "trump",
        "trump bird gesture"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Y9JVCN3DW3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}