{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FS08C0B2L6",
  "slug": "will-trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell",
  "question": "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "presidential-pardon",
    "criminal-justice",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether President Trump issues a pardon or commutation to Ghislaine Maxwell before December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary contract prices the outcome as yes or no. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing official White House announcements on presidential pardons. No Kalshi equivalent exists for this event, so no cross-platform structural contrast applies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QS3JXM8M87",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QS3JXM8M87",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FS08C0B2L6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0dc45815251ab7d5c3cbde5d7eee5bc96eac3d924c0a4c4f10175049e068fe20",
      "question": "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from the White House Office of the President regarding presidential pardons, commutations, or reprieves issued between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1532.776665,
      "volume_total_usd": 734988.7208140015,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ghislaine maxwell",
        "ghislaine maxwell pardon",
        "pardon",
        "politics",
        "trump"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-FS08C0B2L6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}