{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-H39CS7QQZ3",
  "slug": "will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-onptptpt",
  "question": "Will Trump publicly insult someone?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "public-statements",
    "behavioral-prediction",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These 29 Polymarket markets each ask whether Trump will publicly insult someone on a specific day in June 2026. Each daily contract is independent; traders price each date separately rather than an aggregate monthly outcome. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, making the definition of \"publicly insult\" a key interpretive variable. Ambiguous statements or social media posts may trigger disputes under that mechanism.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CWKFTVRW65",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.999,
    "implied_probability": 0.999
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F66J736Z52",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H39CS7QQZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x12b6a68903cd82ff1b611eacbc09995f6998b6827a77fa89e15e58e96dad3074",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 2, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 2: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-02T06:48:53Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 20,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 29333.69159099999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "trump publicly insult"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NB2H6CLPR6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H39CS7QQZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0127a07cc260bce20b8790e1827ca6c3ecd40c2cb5a191b394c922957a2f2b5a",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 29: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 20,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1433.52895,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-71G0M29S06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H39CS7QQZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd16eec502c46d59efab24b62b5a3123c8850719c18b4b8375bd7a92ed7ab34f2",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 3: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-03T22:49:52Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 20,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 47817.48537200002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CWKFTVRW65",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H39CS7QQZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd3c2f09edd8c109c7b3effd9552edcbeeb4fea1fc18f6f315d5c718a04850d2c",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 4: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-04T19:38:22Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 20,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 112358.27548399998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "trump publicly insult"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LLZDD6YBX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H39CS7QQZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x89c538f8548814cacbbc409a2535a8031023c7629becf4acd1764d0569c4fdb5",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 21: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 20,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 17.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 2746.353185,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K65W3DSJQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H39CS7QQZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x03d65c5eb801f03378ee2f23d55286d4ef7626f83125803c1708ac0290a7e87d",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 5: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-05T19:58:30Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 20,
        "caps": [
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 34222.972554000014,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "trump publicly insult"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V5D1818K86",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H39CS7QQZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x118aae515363d7aa1c8352fc57a4dde14904094036a8499f9531d68993c7dac9",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 12: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 20,
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          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5364.9442229999995,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "trump publicly insult"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4GBT1CPC29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H39CS7QQZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd6993e8645fef38717316134a8a7ef0e3393cc2bba8fc65bd5bbc1f44d87b1d6",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 6: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-07T05:37:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026?",
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