{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7L3HYD1S09",
  "slug": "will-trump-publicly-insult-someone-onptptpt-20260630182730878",
  "question": "Will Trump publicly insult someone in July 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "social-media",
    "daily-behavior",
    "2026",
    "public-statements"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These 31 daily Polymarket markets track whether Donald Trump publicly insults someone on each calendar day in July 2026. Each market is structurally independent, pricing a binary yes/no outcome for its assigned date. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle on a per-day basis. The definition of \"publicly insult\" carries interpretive subjectivity, creating meaningful dispute risk under the UMA protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-X413J231W5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.999
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7MDFZC9R26",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7L3HYD1S09",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x19c68cb18ce3ee9c59a0df6bd6baa80726ff6c669ba4b4e6420caa4955a0bf4c",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 1, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 1: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-04T16:14:26Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2HM9VLZ054",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7L3HYD1S09",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x4c485d18efd861a32dd2e89012aa1aa9cf42a5f33e05ea9cf0a6011f3a877b2d",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 2, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "July 2: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T19:53:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P7XZ5ZLDJ7",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "July 3: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-04T15:03:05Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WDGNQG33J1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7L3HYD1S09",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0c4772da1a4533ea67e3556f1507e769adc9fc73234d69e135bcbfec0644db54",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 4, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 4: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-04T13:39:34Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GJKRY4N317",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7L3HYD1S09",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x1296107e35f0c2763a7d22b39ad9d540dbf2ca0b8ca46e249edb0f84fe96dccf",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T08:17:11Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7L3HYD1S09",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x0dd68cfbde8e65b424ed95d0b25150d944e563cabf7533e0872423fd65788178",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 6, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
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      "underlying_reference": "July 6: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-07T08:19:29Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X32RRYP582",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7L3HYD1S09",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xcb213e5eb87732e84836e4add35815b8bbfd01aea99ae0957fb5f8a3f2276872",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 7, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policie",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "July 7: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7L3HYD1S09",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7c22a737bf616033218a3e202a0022235215b1a8b7585617957042196c9377a4",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 8, 2026?",
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      "status": "closed",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 14, 2026?",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "question": "Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 15, 2026?",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T02:18:40Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.\n\nA direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.\n\nAny written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "implied_probability": 0.82,
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      "also_on": null,
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-7L3HYD1S09",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}