{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBYDZ786M8",
  "slug": "will-trump-resign-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Trump resign before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "us-presidency",
    "resignation",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Donald Trump will voluntarily leave the presidency before January 1, 2027. Only one platform structures this event, as a binary outcome on Polymarket. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, triggered by a public resignation announcement. No cross-platform structural contrast exists given single-platform coverage.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YK2XM05LS2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.055,
    "implied_probability": 0.055
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YK2XM05LS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WBYDZ786M8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe430a005036a377169cab5ec0a2541aa0fc30b98ac0e0b29b005a75da3264666",
      "question": "Will Trump resign before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether Donald Trump announces his resignation or intended resignation as US President by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nIf it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US federal government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.055,
      "implied_probability": 0.055,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 22867.396129000008,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "resignation",
        "trump",
        "trump presidency",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-WBYDZ786M8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}