{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HLSMT21CB5",
  "slug": "will-trump-try-to-fire-powell-as-fed-board-member-by",
  "question": "Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "politics",
    "fed-chair",
    "trump-administration",
    "executive-action",
    "fed-governance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether President Trump will attempt to remove Jerome Powell from his Federal Reserve Board of Governors seat. The June 30 contract resolves first via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle; the December 31 contract extends the same binary question by six months. Both markets price identical directional outcomes, with the only structural difference being the expiry horizon. The staggered deadlines allow traders to express views on timing, not just on whether an attempt occurs.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DXTS780K45",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DXTS780K45",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HLSMT21CB5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf46470ab7b1ade5d9f8859f0cebcdd82b7493d32aba3ae083baaa64964b3cf85",
      "question": "Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nStatements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.\n\nIf Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his rol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nStatements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.\n\nIf Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Donald Trump",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 9246.997750000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D2DD1F79D8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "politics",
        "powell",
        "trump",
        "trump firing powell"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KR2619ZX51",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HLSMT21CB5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa834cb93d7da5316c9b770c5f92a7c78f7c65c85e197f497a19f02b94fdf7e90",
      "question": "Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nStatements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.\n\nIf Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his rol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nStatements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.\n\nIf Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nAttempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Donald Trump",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8100.841162000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B791FD545D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fed",
        "politics",
        "powell",
        "trump",
        "trump firing powell"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DXTS780K45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HLSMT21CB5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}