{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-40RCWTYSD5",
  "slug": "will-uae-leave-the-gulf-cooperation-council-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "gulf-cooperation-council",
    "uae",
    "international-organizations",
    "middle-east-politics",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the UAE will formally exit the Gulf Cooperation Council before end of 2026. Resolution requires an official UAE government announcement of withdrawal. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement, referencing formal government communications as the authoritative source. No cross-platform structural contrast is available; only one market exists.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-W19FS8D4S2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W19FS8D4S2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-40RCWTYSD5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2d9ffab1a53bf58c0c6395b83d3fbdbeee89af9fc2c048e33c7cdc960086ac1c",
      "question": "Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council  in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "An official announcement or formal communication from the United Arab Emirates government or authorized entity stating its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the UAE government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the GCC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 20,
      "volume_total_usd": 99797.2904119999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "gcc",
        "geopolitics",
        "middle east",
        "uae",
        "uae gcc membership"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-40RCWTYSD5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}