{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9",
  "slug": "will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "ukraine-russia-territorial-concessions",
    "geopolitics",
    "trump-administration-foreign-policy",
    "conflict-resolution",
    "2026",
    "peace-negotiations"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Ukraine formally agrees to cede territory to Russia. The August 31, 2026 contract closes earlier than the December 31, 2026 contract, creating a time-horizon spread on the same binary outcome. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The shorter-dated contract prices nearer-term diplomatic capitulation risk; the longer-dated contract prices the same outcome over a wider window.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5FF4XB0C15",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.1,
    "implied_probability": 0.1,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2WLD8XG5C5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x89ea27c8007c434b17a30636cd15d073d544579c475ff258ec265c7725b2b690",
      "question": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nOnly territory ceded as part of a di",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nOnly territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. \n\nIf a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nAny agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-01T12:00:42.415Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 67532.35795899999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "russia",
        "territory",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine territorial agreement"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5FF4XB0C15",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x21bf9a7dae81b6bd51acae73185686ab8997b81b1401e4be10e114d472599c26",
      "question": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nOnly territory ceded as part of a ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  \n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nOnly territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. \n\nIf a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nAny agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 704.330479,
      "volume_total_usd": 737330.1061580001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "russia",
        "territory",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine territorial agreement"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}