{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CP6V946J32",
  "slug": "will-ukraine-agree-to-give-up-the-rest-of-donbas-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "ukraine-russia-conflict",
    "territorial-concessions",
    "peace-negotiations",
    "donbas-resolution",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Ukraine will formally agree to cede remaining Donbas territory to Russia before January 1, 2027. A single Polymarket binary contract prices the outcome; no parallel rate-level or margin structure exists across platforms. Resolution requires credible news reporting of a publicly announced mutual agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle adjudicates the outcome against that standard.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TQNTNCXMG4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TQNTNCXMG4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CP6V946J32",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbac2d74fbb7ab5f72b557605538376485d1a093bd9a526584b33153a83a74d97",
      "question": "Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. \n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf suc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Credible news reporting of a publicly announced mutual agreement between Russia and Ukraine for Ukraine to cede de facto control of specified Donbas cities by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. \n\nThe deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAny agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.  \n\nA Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.\n\nOnly territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 30,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 146613.999002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "donbas",
        "peace",
        "russia",
        "territorial",
        "ukraine",
        "ukraine donbas territorial"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-CP6V946J32",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}