{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XS608W3B5",
  "slug": "will-us-annex-any-territory-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the US annex any territory in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "us-foreign-policy",
    "territorial-expansion",
    "2026",
    "trump-administration"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the United States formally annexes any territory before December 31, 2026. A single binary contract on Polymarket captures the outcome. Resolution depends on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which must determine whether official annexation occurred. No corroborating platform structures this event differently, limiting cross-platform price discovery.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YWDF5N9NZ5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.033,
    "implied_probability": 0.033
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YWDF5N9NZ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9XS608W3B5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7b0ed36d5d86756b0f854dd2d5a721c951c2e2c6273c63b00c837b1842bb62e4",
      "question": "Will US annex any territory in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAnnexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.\n\nQualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official inf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether the United States officially annexed any territory by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAnnexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.\n\nQualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the US government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.033,
      "implied_probability": 0.033,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 154052.47688800003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "sovereignty",
        "us",
        "us territorial annexation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9XS608W3B5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}